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Evaluation of future trends of scientific research

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posted on 2017-01-30, 00:05 authored by Charlie Sun, Kerry Li, Zhenyu Li

The rising trend of scientific researches have led more people to pay their attention towards scientific researches, but simply the word "scientific research" does not explain the whole nature of itself, like any other things in reality, it is divided into many realms. The various fields of scientific research have already been discussed by many scholarly articles and have been evaluated by previous census and researches. However, the ultimate question remains unanswered, namely, what is the most popular field of scientific research and which one will become the focus in the future.

Although the number of specific fields that can be derived is too vast to be counted, numerous major fields can be identified to categorize the various fields, such as astronomy, engineering, computer science, medicine, biology and chemistry. Several main factors are related to the popularity, such as the number of articles relating to respective fields, number of posts on social media and the number of views on professional sites.

A program was developed to analyze the relationship between the subjects for scientific research and the future trend of them based on the number of mentions for each field of research, scholarly articles and quotations about them. The program uses the data from Altmetric data, an authoritative data source. SAS is used to analyze the data and put the data on several graphs that represent the value for each factor. Finally, suggestions for future scientific researches can be summarized and inferred from the result of this research, which is aimed to provide enlightenment for future research directions.

Fig 1 - The functions used in this research.
Fig 2 - The main Python program used in this research.
Fig 3 - The structure of output.
Fig 4 - Factor 1: Number of articles relating to each field.
Fig 5 - Factor 2: Number of views on Mendeley, Connotea, and Citeulike.
Fig 6 - Factor 3: Number of posts on Facebook and Twitter.
Fig 7 - The correlation between individual factors.

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