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Determinants of Climate Change to Ice Wine Vineyards in the Niagra Peninsula Region

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posted on 2018-02-21, 07:00 authored by Nathaniel Chan, Jacky Lee, Jason Yuen, Tony Liu

This study focuses on the detrimental effects of climate change on the production of ice wine grapes in the Niagara Peninsula. Climate change and rising atmospheric temperatures are negatively affecting crop yields. This publication focuses on the white grape varieties Chardonnay, Vidal, Riesling, and red Cabmet Franc grapes, which are the types of grapes used to make ice wine in the Niagara Peninsula. The process involves harvesting grapes at an optimal temperature between -10°C and -12°C. Farmers will inevitably be forced to relocate if the trends of climate change continue.

Weather station databases were used to determine the changes in temperature and precipitation in the Niagara Peninsula over the last 80 years. Data from vineyards was compiled to reveal the climate conditions suitable for harvesting the grapes used for icewine. Through this process, optimal temperature and precipitation ranges for icewine were identified. The scatter plots were analyzed and a trend was seen using cross analysis. The time when the region would be unsuitable for grape yields was observed.

An analysis of the results revealed that as the atmospheric temperature rose, the region's effectiveness for ice wine grape growth was hindered. The investigation revealed that by 2030, the Niagara peninsula will not be the optimal location to grow hybrids of white grapes. The region will be unsuitable for the germination of red and white grapes following the year 2097.

The observations have applications for vineyards and winery businesses. The dynamic process of relocating wineries is a logistical setback. As temperatures rise, vineyards will be forced to change their locations, destroying the legacies of vineyards which gives wine their high price. With this concern, many wine companies need to forecast the climate conditions in the near future so that they can plan ahead and transition to more suitable climates, as current vineyards become unusable.

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